America’s Middle East Upheaval: Assessing Egypt and Jordan’s Opposition To Trump’s Gaza Refugee Plan

Many Arab leaders in the Middle East are deeply concerned over Trump’s Oval Office meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which signals a significant realignment between their two countries over the future of the Middle East.

Trump’s proposed initiative to pressure Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egypt’s President Al-Sisi, both recipients of billions of dollars of U.S. aid, has reset, even if only perceptually, the Middle East chessboard. Already in his first two weeks in office, Trump has proven that he “speaks Middle East.” He has already forced Hamas and Israel into a three-stage hostages-for-terrorists deal. He has also dared to do what no U.S. president has done – delivering an electric shock over the Palestinian issue to two major Arab allies of the United States.

Trump’s plan, it should be said, has triggered a flurry of urgent meetings, statements, and warnings by the major Arab powers including Saudi Arabia.

The plan and its tension-filled response sets the stage for a possible clash between the United States and Israel, on the one hand, and the Sunni-Arab establishment, on the other. No doubt, the Iranian regime will also exploit these differences. However, Trump is determined to disrupt the decades-long failed paradigm that has only prevented the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

For their part, Abdullah and Al-Sisi have expressed in no uncertain terms their opposition to Trump’s plan to resettle Palestinians from the Gaza Strip in their respective countries.

Jordanian and Egyptian opposition to the Trump plan presents a major security and diplomatic challenge for the region, as it forges a pathway to confrontation with the U.S. Administration.

Trump’s groundbreaking declaration represents the first time in modern Middle Eastern history that a U.S. president has suggested such a far-reaching proposed solution that breaks the decades-long Arab-U.S. understandings on the “two-state solution.”

From the Arab world’s viewpoint, the initiative signals a U.S. retreat from Trump’s 2020 “Deal of the Century.”

Trump has wasted no time advancing the idea. On January 27th, 2025, Trump told reporters during an Air Force One flight that he had spoken with al-Sisi regarding the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt.

He said, “I want them to live in a place without violence. Gaza has been a hell for so many years, and they could live in much better and more comfortable areas.”

Trump clarified his approach to “friend-foe” diplomacy.” He noted, regarding al-Sisi, “I have helped him a lot, and I hope he will help us. I think he will take in Palestinians from Gaza, and I believe the King of Jordan will do the same.”

For his part, Abdullah’s central concern reflects a longstanding conspiracy theory that Israel considers Jordan a Palestinian state, and intends to flood the kingdom with millions of Palestinians from the West Bank, Judea and Samaria and Gaza.

Jordan is not alone in rejecting the U.S. initiative. Egypt and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have also panned the plan.

However, no sitting Israeli prime minister has deemed Jordan to be a Palestinian state.

Jordan’s and Egypt’s sensitivity to Trump’s plan is deeply rooted in their common fear that, since the beginning of the October 7th War, Israel has been quietly planning to repopulate Gaza and establish new Jewish communities there.

The drama tearing across the Middle East does not come as a surprise to regional observers. Since the beginning of the Hamas-Israel war, the issue has become a primary focus of the Arab and Muslim world.

Muslim Brotherhood-led protests have taken place in Jordan in support of Hamas in Gaza, threatening the stability of the monarchy. Abdullah is deeply concerned about maintaining power. It is commonly understood and confirmed by Israeli security officials that Abdullah opposes any American initiative that could be perceived as harming Palestinian rights and interests in Gaza as well as the West Bank. Abdullah’s position is a reflection of the regime’s fragility and fears of self-preservation.

Al-Sisi faces a similar predicament. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt also poses a threat to regime stability. Both leaders are actively seeking ways to remove the plan from the U.S. Middle East agenda.

There is a precedent. While Egypt and Saudi Arabia supported Trump’s call during his first administration for the resumption of negotiations between Israel and the PA, 1 Jordan aligned with the PA in rejecting his January 2020 “Deal of the Century” peace plan, 2 despite its inclusion of a Palestinian state in some 70% of Judea and Samaria a.k.a the West Bank.

Trump’s initiative to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan is seen by Egyptian and Jordanian leaderships as a redesigned and reengineered version of the previous “Deal of the Century.”

The U.S plan has set off a fierce chain reaction. Senior Palestinian officials said PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt, and Jordan are coordinating their opposition, 3 to Trump’s plan with Saudi Arabia by strengthening their strategic ties with the European Union, Russia, and China.

The stakes are high.

Egypt and Jordan rely heavily on annual U.S. economic and military aid. Trump’s recent decision to cut off foreign aid to Jordan sends a powerful message to these countries and others in the region. Both Egypt and Jordan face severe economic difficulties, including foreign currency shortages, large external debts, and the challenge of providing their populations with basic necessities such as food and fuel.

On January 28th, the London-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news outlet reported that Egypt is adopting a “strategic patience” strategy—waiting and attempting to manage the crisis through careful calculations behind closed doors. Egypt understands that any direct confrontation with Trump could damage its political and economic ties with the United States.

Egypt is fully aware of the precariousness of its situation. Its multidimensional relationship with the U.S. is not solely political but also includes significant financial and military support. The sensitivity of this relationship requires al-Sisi and Abdullah to step gingerly when working with the Trump administration.

Egypt fears that an outright rejection of Trump’s plan could complicate its relations with Washington, which plays a central role in securing international aid for Egypt—whether directly from the U.S. or through its Gulf allies. Moreover, any diplomatic confrontation with Washington over the Palestinian issue could expose Cairo to both internal and external pressures that it cannot afford.

Senior Israeli political and military officials estimate that the Egyptian leadership is relying on several factors:

Widespread Palestinian rejection – The PA and Hamas will oppose Trump’s plan.

Total Arab rejection – Jordan and other Arab nations will refuse to cooperate.

Shifts in U.S. priorities – Egypt is betting that over time, U.S. foreign policy or the administration’s direction may change.

Egypt and Jordan now face a significant challenge in dealing with Trump’s determination to implement his migration plan for Palestinians from Gaza.

It is understood in American political circles that Trump is motivated to win a Nobel Peace Prize and “when he decides on something, he goes all the way to make it happen.”

Arguably, Trump should have received a Nobel prize in his first term following the signing of the Abraham Accords, but this did not happen for political reasons.

Egypt and Jordan are attempting to buy time to prevent implementation of Trump’s plan and that only massive public protests in Egypt and Jordan, rallying around al-Sisi and Abdullah’s leadership, could possibly deter Trump from implementing his proposal.

It is not unreasonable to assess that Hamas and the PA will join forces to incite the Palestinian public against Trump’s plan. The issue is already gaining traction in Palestinian media and on social networks.

In fact, on January 31st, 2025, several thousand people protested, 4 – with the support of the Egyptian regime – on the Egyptian side of the Rafah Border with Gaza against Trump’s plan.

In sum, the Trump plan represents a loud, opening salvo of American primacy in the Middle East, reversing both the Obama and Biden administration’s policy of appeasement.

Trump’s bold declaration and follow-up moves have created conditions for a near-term collision with some of America’s Arab allies, which has far-reaching implications for Israel.

However, it is possible that Trump’s bold assertion of American power and its use of economic leverage and military aid will succeed in softening Jordanian and Egyptian opposition to his plan, thus setting a new American-driven paradigm for U.S. policy in the Middle East. It could also foretell a completely unexpected pathway to regional security stability and a possible U.S.-imposed mitigation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Credit: https://jcpa.org/americas-middle-east-disruption-assessing-egypt-and-jordans-opposition-to-trumps-gaza-refugee-plan/